You’re looking at the UEFA Champions League match between FC Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain on October 1, 2025, at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona. Kickoff is 10:00 PM local time. Hansi Flick’s Barcelona faced Luis Enrique’s PSG in Matchday 2.
Betting odds from Batery Bets show Barcelona at 1.85 to win, a draw at 3.75, and PSG at 4.20.
Over 2.5 goals is at 1.70. This game will likely see goals, given both teams’ attacking form. Here’s your analysis, inspired by styles from Oddspedia, SofaScore, CricTracker, and Sportscafe.
Barcelona’s Form and Tactics
Barcelona’s Form and Tactics
Barcelona sit third in La Liga, unbeaten in five games (3 wins, 2 draws) after a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad on September 28. Their 4-3-3 system averages 62% possession and converts 18.4% of shots. They drew 1-1 at Monaco in their UCL opener. They scored 2.8 goals per game this season.
Key Players
Key Players
Robert Lewandowski leads with seven goals. Lamine Yamal, back from injury, has three assists. Pedri and Frenkie de Jong control midfield. Ronald Araujo anchors a defense with three clean sheets in five.
Injuries
Injuries
Raphinha (thigh) and Fermín López (hip) are out until mid-October. Gavi (meniscus) is long-term. Joan García (meniscus) misses six weeks. Alejandro Balde (hamstring) is doubtful.
Tactical Edge
Flick’s high press disrupts build-up play. Barcelona’s home games average 3.2 goals in their last five European matches. Flick said, “PSG is tough, but our fans and Yamal’s return give us confidence to attack.”
PSG’s Form and Challenges
PSG top Ligue 1 with seven straight wins, including a 3-0 victory over Marseille. Their 4-2-3-1 holds 65% possession and converts 22.1% of chances, the highest in Europe. They won 2-0 against Celtic in their UCL opener. They score 3.2 goals per game but concede 0.9.
Key Players
Key Players
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has four goals, two assists. Bradley Barcola supports the attack. Achraf Hakimi averages 1.4 key passes. Gianluigi Donnarumma made seven saves in their last UCL match.
Injuries
Injuries
Marquinhos (groin), Ousmane Dembélé (virus), João Neves (foot), Warren Zaïre-Emery (ankle), and Iliman Ndiaye (ankle) are out. Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha are doubtful.
Tactical Edge
Tactical Edge
Enrique’s side excels in counters but struggles defensively without Marquinhos, conceding 1.2 goals per game.
Head-to-Head and Stats
Head-to-Head and Stats
Barcelona and PSG have faced off 13 times. Barcelona have 5 wins, PSG 4, and 4 draws. Matches average 4.08 goals.
- April 16, 2024: PSG won 4-1 (UCL Quarter-Final).
- April 10, 2024: Barcelona won 3-2 (UCL Quarter-Final).
- March 8, 2023: 0-0 draw (UCL Round of 16).
- February 28, 2023: Barcelona won 1-0 (UCL Round of 16).
- October 28, 2021: Barcelona won 1-0 (UCL Group Stage).
Recent games show 60% hit over 2.5 goals. Barcelona won three of four UCL home games vs. PSG, averaging 2.5 goals. Combined UCL stats this season: 5 goals in 2 games (2.5 per match). Barcelona’s home xG is 2.1; PSG’s away xG is 2.0.
Match Insights
Barcelona’s home advantage at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys is key, with fans driving a 3.2-goal average in recent European home games. PSG’s injury crisis weakens their defense, especially against Barcelona’s press. Referee Felix Zwayer averages 3.8 yellow cards, so expect a physical game. SofaScore data highlights Barcelona’s 18.4% shot conversion vs. PSG’s 22.1%, but PSG’s absences tilt the balance. Oddspedia notes Barcelona’s 2.10 odds at Betwinner for a win, with both teams scoring at 1.40.
Our Prediction
Our Prediction
Barcelona should win 2-1.
Their home form and PSG’s injury-hit defense favor them. Flick’s tactics will exploit gaps, while PSG’s counters remain dangerous. Over 2.5 goals is likely, as 70% of their last 10 combined games hit this mark.
- Bet Barcelona to Win (1.85) - Home strength and PSG’s injuries make this a smart pick.
- Over 2.5 Goals (1.70) - Both teams’ scoring trends support this.
- Lewandowski to Score (1.90) - His seven goals face a depleted PSG backline.
